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True shin conditioning is done by kicking a heavy bag. You need to beat your shins across something softer than bone otherwise you run the risk of creating tiny stress fractures along your shin. If you hit objects that are too hard you can deaden the nerves in your shins easily to reduce pain sensitivity and the bone will feel tough and hardened so it will be easy to assume you’ve made your shins harder, but the stress fractures will make it much more likely that you’ll suffer a catastrophic shin break (think Anderson Silva leg break). Now kicking a bag may not seem like very intense conditioning, but if you’re kicking properly then I assure you it is. The purpose of Muay Thai kicks is power. Every single kick needs to be 100% power driven through the bag and you should be throwing hundreds of kicks a day. You should be kicking hard enough to break the skin on your shin from time to time and if you do and your shin starts bleeding you should keep kicking through the pain and through the blood. When you devote that kind of commitment to perfecting your kick, your shins will get conditioned at the same time. For this reason the real answer is that by the time your kicks are strong enough to be up to par, your shins will also be conditioned. The exact amount of time varies from person to person based on how hard they train, but a good average amount of time with devoted training is 2-3 months to get fairly solid power in your kicks and a base level of shin conditioning.